Back in 2010 I wrote a letter to David Cameron who had just taken over as Prime Minister of UK. He had inherited the consequences of the 2008 financial crisis and I thought he might like a few suggestions. I don’t know what I was thinking at the time. Perhaps I was hoping he would offer me a job! Clearly I was deluding myself to think that he would take any notice of my ideas. One of his aides sent me a brief acknowledgement while my letter was no doubt consigned to the shredding machine.
Anyway, in this letter, among other things, I urged an immediate withdrawal of UK forces from Afghanistan with a view to saving £2.5 billion per year for the UK taxpayer. This is what I wrote eleven years ago:
‘This is our fourth war in Afghanistan and the Afghans have taken an unbeatable lead in the series, having won two and drawn one. The earlier wars were fought when Britain was at the height of its imperial power with the almost limitless resources of British India right on Afghanistan’s doorstep. The technological superiority of our weaponry over the Afghans’ was at least as great as today and it was a time when the British public had an appetite for imperial adventures and a higher tolerance of casualties. If we could not overcome the Afghans then, what makes us think we will have more success this time? For the Afghan, guerrilla warfare is the national sport, inter-tribal disputes are part of their DNA and advanced weaponry is the ultimate male status symbol. Our Armed Forces of course are excellent but are on a hiding to nothing in Afghanistan. They should be pulled out now while we can still claim an honourable draw.
The Americans will eventually pull out too and the Karzai government is likely to fall. We certainly should not waste further UK taxpayer money on trying to prop up that government with funds and weapons. The Taliban might regain power but their dark reign will not be complete nor will it be permanent. Afghanistan is likely to fragment into rival warlord fiefdoms. It will be sad for the Afghans but ultimately they have to sort out their own problems and perhaps, free from foreign interference for the first time in decades, they will have a chance to forge a more stable future for themselves.’
Pity Mr Cameron didn’t follow my suggestion.